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AGN:EURONEXT AMSTERDAMAegon Ltd. Analysis

Data as of 2026-03-14 - not real-time

$10.23

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

AGNC Investment Corp. trades around $10.23, just above the calculated support of $10.21, while the 20‑day SMA (≈$11.02) sits well above the current price, indicating short‑term downside pressure. Technical signals are mixed: the RSI is deep in oversold territory at 26, suggesting a potential rebound, but the MACD histogram remains bearish and volume is on a decreasing trend, tempering optimism. Fundamentally, the stock appears markedly cheap with a trailing P/E of 6.96 versus an industry average of 32.5, and a price‑to‑book of 1.09, yet it carries a massive debt‑to‑equity ratio of nearly 689, reflecting heavy leverage typical of mortgage REITs. The dividend yield is exceptionally high at 14.08% but the payout ratio sits at 98%, raising questions about sustainability despite strong operating cash flow. The upside/downside estimate of +15%/‑? aligns with the price target median of $12, while volatility of 23% and a max drawdown of about 22% signal a fairly volatile environment. Overall, investors must weigh the allure of a high yield against leverage and interest‑rate exposure, with the current market sentiment leaning toward “greed” (FGI 72.9).

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Positive
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • Oversold RSI indicating potential price bounce
  • Support level just below current price
  • Attractive dividend yield despite sustainability concerns

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • Significant valuation discount to industry peers
  • Projected upside of ~15% from analyst targets
  • Steady operating cash flow supporting dividend payments

Long Term

> 3 years
Neutral
Model confidence: 6/10

Key Factors

  • High leverage and sensitivity to interest‑rate cycles
  • Near‑full payout ratio limiting cash‑flow cushion
  • Regulatory environment for mortgage REITs remains stable but could tighten

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth546.10%
Profit Margin92.93%
P/E Ratio7.0
ROE15.08%
ROA1.64%
Debt/Equity688.68
P/B Ratio1.1
Op. Cash Flow$653.0M
Industry P/E32.5

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI26.3
Support$10.21
Resistance$11.56
MA 20$11.02
MA 50$11.29
MA 200$10.22
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index72.88

Valuation

Target Price$11.78
Upside/Downside15.13%
GradeUndervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield14.08%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.64
Volatility23.27%
Sector RiskHigh
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.